Sweden vs Tunisia

**THE SIGNAL** 97% of bets and 98% of the money is on Sweden. That's not a public pile-on — that's near-unanimous action. No line movement means the book is comfortable right where it is at -115. **THE STORY** Sweden's form is a mixed bag — they beat Poland and Ukraine but dropped games to Kosovo and Switzerland in qualifying. Tunisia hasn't scored more than one goal in any of their last five matches and blanked completely against Canada. These two have never met, so there's no historical edge either way. The draw sitting at +220 implies a 31% chance — almost one-in-three — which is notable when both teams are trending toward low-scoring, tight results. **WHERE TO LOOK** - **Draw +220** — Tunisia's last five produced zero blowouts, and Sweden's recent form shows vulnerability; books are pricing this at 31% - **Under (total goals)** — Tunisia has gone under in 4 of their last 5; neither team is in prolific form - **Tunisia +1.5 goals** at +280 — nearly 3-to-1 on a team that hasn't been blown out recently