Iran vs New Zealand

**THE SIGNAL** Iran is eating 77% of the money and 76% of bets — this isn't a split, it's a stampede. No sharp fade here; the public and the money are pointing the same direction at -130. **THE STORY** The draw line quietly shortened from +240 to +235 against public action — someone is buying the stalemate. Iran's recent form is a mixed bag: that 5-0 demolition of Costa Rica looks great until you see back-to-back scoreless draws and a loss to Nigeria. New Zealand actually beat Chile 4-1 but has dropped three of their last four. These teams have never met, so there's zero historical data to anchor expectations. Iran at -130 implies 57% — that's not overwhelming confidence for a team that's been shutting out in friendlies. **WHERE TO LOOK** - **Draw +235** — the line is shortening against the public tide, meaning sharp money is landing here - **Iran -130** — 77% of dollars back them, and New Zealand has lost three of their last four - **New Zealand +310** — one in four implied; that 4-1 Chile win shows they can score when motivated on a big stage