England vs Croatia

**THE SIGNAL** 73% of the money is on England, but only 89% of bets — that gap is small, meaning the money is roughly following the crowd here. No sharp divergence. The public loves England, and so far the books aren't being moved off their number. **THE STORY** England's last two results before qualifiers were a loss to Japan and a draw with Uruguay — not exactly a team hitting peak form. Croatia beat England in the 2018 World Cup and have gone 1-2-1 against them since. The books have England at 60% implied probability, but Croatia's +400 line only prices them at 20% — the draw at +300 is being slept on hard given this exact matchup has produced two draws and a Croatian win in the last four meetings. **WHERE TO LOOK** - **Draw +300** — H2H shows two draws and a Croatia win in four meetings; the public is ignoring this price entirely - **Croatia +400** — they've beaten England before in a World Cup and arrive with four wins in their last five - **Croatia/Draw Double Chance -115** — covers three of the four most likely H2H outcomes at a price the crowd hasn't touched